Due to heavy casualties and lack of rotation, the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine have significant morale problems that prevent Russia from achieving its operational objectives.
This was stated by the UK Ministry of Defence with reference to intelligence data.
“In recent weeks, Russian morale highly likely remains especially troubled. Cases of whole Russian units refusing orders and armed stand-offs between officers and their troops continue to occur,” the report reads.
British intelligence suggests that the Russian authorities are likely struggling to bring legal pressure to bear on military dissenters, hampered by the invasion’s official status as a ‘special military operation’ rather than as a war.
Among the drivers for low Russian morale, the UK intelligence calls the following:
- perceived poor leadership,
- limited opportunity for rotation of units out of combat,
- very heavy casualties,
- combat stress,
- continued poor logistics,
- problems with pay.
“Many Russian personnel of all ranks also likely remain confused about the war’s objectives. Morale problems in the Russian force are likely so significant that they are limiting Russia’s ability to achieve operational objectives,” the defense Intelligence concluded.
One day earlier, Ukrainian intelligence reported that a case of desertion of more than 60 military personnel of the occupation forces had been recorded in the Zaporizhzhia region.