When the main positive news about the dynamics of prices in the oil markets is that this price has again risen above zero, we must admit that we are in a completely new economic space and in a completely new political reality.
This is primarily true of Ukraine simply because Ukraine is a neighbor of Russia. And Russia, in addition, occupies part of its territory, destabilizes the situation in our country, supports pro-Russian politicians and favors populists.
For Russia, the decline in oil prices will prove fatal. It is not true that the country is successfully surviving the energy crisis due to reserves. This is not an energy crisis. This is a global economic crisis.
Also, the Soviet Union, among other things, was declined thanks to the energy crisis.
To survive in a global economic crisis, a country where the entire “well-being” is built solely on oil and gas, will be very hard. The real struggle for survival for the countries will begin now. The strongest will survive. Russia has nothing to do with them. Already, the price war of recent weeks has been a war for ousting Russia from the dying oil market. And now there is no market.
It is clear that the problems will be not only for the Russians. Problems will be with the American oil industry. The only difference is that oil production is not a determining factor for the US economy. There will be problems in the Gulf monarchies too.
The collapse of Putin’s Russia is a matter of time. It is clear that this will not happen in a few days, months, maybe even years – though who knows. But now it is safe to say that it will happen.
What will happen to us? Will Russia leave the Crimea and the Donbas and stop the war? Honestly, the Kremlin will hold on to the occupied territories for as long as it can: in Ukraine, in Georgia, and Moldova. However, quite different things will happen, in fact, much more significant for the future of our country.
Russia will start saving on propaganda and political prostitutes. We will be amazed to see how the pro-Russian parties, pro-Russian television channels, pro-Russian network of propagandists will disappear. Fans of the “Russian world” will suddenly stop loving Russia – because it will cease to pay fees.
In the 1980s and 1990s, the inhabitants of Western countries watched with amazement the disappearance of the international communist movement, together with its activists, newspapers, and demonstrations for the defense of peace. Yesterday the Communists claimed power even in countries such as France or Italy, and today they hastily sold off their property and declared themselves democrats. And all of it happened because the budget of the international department of the CPSU Central Committee was cut. You just need to stop paying.
By the way, Western populist politicians that are on the Russian payroll, both left and right, are now also concerned. Many of them will disappear as if they had never existed.
But let’s go back to Ukraine. In Ukraine, we already live among the living dead. The activities of most of our players – from oligarchs to deputies – who have built their careers on the reconciliation with the Kremlin – have lost the meaning. In this aquarium, they will not catch any more fish. Even the dream of the managers of the “Quartal 95” to sell their wonderful series to Russia is irrelevant. They will no longer be able to sell any work of art to the Russians – they will not pay.
Now, money can now be found – no, not found but earned or borrowed only in the West. And, of course, in our country – if we properly build its economy during the economic pandemic.
That is why I am talking about living dead. Much sooner than you think, there will be other authorities and other social sentiments in our country. Much faster everyone who can will be retrained as patriots. Our oligarchs will lose power. It will be easier for Ukraine to become Ukraine – and only in this way will we overcome the era of total poverty that began these days.
And what we see today – both in Kyiv and in the Kremlin – are convictions of the past. It’s agony. All this has nothing to do with the future.
First published in Ukrainian https://espreso.tv/article/2020/04/21/vitaliy_portnykov_my_zhyvemo_sered_zhyvykh_merciv