The Russian army, located in the territory of Belarus, does not have enough forces for a repeated land offensive on the northern regions of Ukraine, the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev has said.
“We assess the level of military threat based on the number of forces that are currently within the territory of Belarus. These forces are not enough to launch a land offensive at the moment, but what may happen in the future depends on the intentions of the enemy,” Nayev stated.
He emphasised that despite the absence of signs of a serious threat, the Ukrainian military had managed to significantly strengthen the northern border.
“A system of engineering barriers was created, namely mine and explosive barriers, and their density along the state border increased by ten folds. The system of defensive lines and positions was formed,” added the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Main Directorate of Intelligence notes that the Belarusians are trying to refrain from participating in the war against Ukraine. Military intelligence monitors Russian troops located in the territory of Belarus around the clock and the terrorist country’s attempts to fully involve Belarusians in the war against Ukraine.
“We see that Belarus seems to support Russia and at the same time it tries by all means to refrain from joining the war. We also see how much Russia is pressuring them. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Belarusian military will be forced to obey Lukashenko’s orders and may be involved in the invasion of Ukraine. However, in the next two to three weeks, the Russians have neither the forces nor the funds to invade from the territory of Belarus,” assured Andriy Chernyak, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate at the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.
According to experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is likely subsume elements of Belarus’ defence industrial base as part of a larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine.
The analysts stress that the Kremlin may commandeer Belarusian factories and retool them to produce critical materiel that the Russian military needs.